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CMS February 2026 Enrollment Files: Early Signals for Medicare Advantage Plans

CMS has released portions of the February 2026 Medicare Advantage enrollment files. While membership by individual plan and plan/county has not yet been published, parent organization-level enrollment data (excluding PDP) provides early insight into market movement following a year of plan exits and regulatory pressure.


Despite widely anticipated contraction, overall Medicare Advantage enrollment increased by 1.2% year-over-year, even amid significant market exits.


This modest growth underscores a key theme for 2026: the market is not shrinking — it is consolidating and shifting.

 

Where Growth Is Concentrating

Overall Market

  • Total MA enrollment: +1.2%

  • Continued consolidation among stronger parent organizations

  • Market exits have not translated into net membership decline


Special Needs Plans Continue to Accelerate

SNP growth remains one of the most important signals in the February release:

  • D-SNP enrollment increased by 208,000 members (+6%)

  • C-SNP enrollment increased by 222,000 members (+6%)


Historically, SNP growth continues throughout the year, meaning these numbers are likely to increase further in upcoming releases.


The implication is clear: risk-adjusted, high-acuity populations continue to expand — even under V28.


Biggest Gainers

Parent Organization

Dec-25

Feb-26

Change

% Change

Humana Inc.

5,839,941

7,038,194

1,198,253

20.5%

Devoted Health, Inc.

211,222

467,845

256,623

121.5%

SCAN Group

315,758

431,644

115,886

36.7%

Aware Integrated, Inc.

257,085

336,779

79,694

31.0%|

Alignment Healthcare USA, LLC

234,749

277,210

42,461

18.1%

Medica Holding Company

174,565

259,880

85,315

48.9%

Clover Health Holdings, Inc.

113,113

154,265

41,152

36.4%

Trinity Health Corporation

60,219

103,004

42,785

71.0%

Sanford Health

10,009

92,221

82,212

821.4%

These organizations appear to have capitalized on market exits, regional strength, or targeted SNP growth strategies.


Largest Enrollment Declines

Parent Organization

Dec-25

Feb-26

Change

% Change

UnitedHealth Group, Inc.

10,307,298

9,369,348

(937,950)

-9.1%

CVS Health Corporation

4,227,117

4,096,451

(130,666)

-3.1%

Elevance Health, Inc.

2,235, 104

1,914,939

(320, 165)

-14.3%

Centene Corporation

995,710

962,569

(33,141)

-3.3%

Health Care Service Corporation

978,178

880,669

(97,509)

-10.0%

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Mutual Ins. Co.

795,492

678,503

(116,989)

-14.7%

Highmark Health

486,124

422,580

(63,544)

-13.1%

Molina Healthcare, Inc.

262,583

232,736

(29,847)

-11.4%

Gemstone Holdings, Inc.

77,167

35,863

(41,304)

-53.5%

Sentara Health Care (SHC)

50,662

10,101

(40,561)

-80.1%

Membership losses may reflect product exits, pricing adjustments, or competitive displacement — particularly in markets affected by V28 risk recalibration and margin compression.

Why This Matters Now


This enrollment shift comes at a pivotal time:

  • Full implementation of the V28 risk adjustment model

  • Bid preparation for 2027 underway

  • Ongoing margin compression across MA

  • Increased scrutiny around prior authorization and compliance

  • Expansion of SNP-focused growth strategies


Enrollment movement, especially within SNP products, materially changes risk mix, revenue modeling, and operational demand.


Plans that do not reassess financial projections now risk misaligning bid strategy, product positioning, and staffing models.



How Rebellis Can Help


At Rebellis Group, we help Medicare Advantage organizations translate enrollment data and regulatory shifts into actionable strategy.

Our support includes:

  • V28 risk adjustment impact modeling at the product level

  • Bid and pricing sensitivity analysis

  • SNP growth strategy and integration planning

  • Revenue scenario modeling based on enrollment shifts

  • Regulatory interpretation tied to CMS Final Rule developments

  • Operational planning aligned with changing membership acuity

With enrollment patterns evolving and SNP growth accelerating, proactive modeling and scenario analysis are essential ahead of 2027 bid decisions.


The February 2026 data confirms that Medicare Advantage remains resilient — but competitive dynamics are intensifying. Growth is not evenly distributed. Risk mix is shifting. Margin sensitivity is increasing.


Plans that proactively model, adjust, and align strategy now will be better positioned than those reacting after bid submissions are finalized.



 
 
 
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