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CMS February 2026 Enrollment Files: Early Signals for Medicare Advantage Plans

Updated: Mar 11

CMS has released portions of the February 2026 Medicare Advantage enrollment files. While membership by individual plan and plan/county has not yet been published, parent organization-level enrollment data (excluding PDP) provides early insight into market movement following a year of plan exits and regulatory pressure.


Despite widely anticipated contraction, overall Medicare Advantage enrollment increased by 0.9% year-over-year, even amid significant market exits.


This modest growth underscores a key theme for 2026: the market is not shrinking — it is consolidating and shifting.

 

Where Growth Is Concentrating

Overall Market

  • Total MA enrollment: +0.9%

  • Continued consolidation among stronger parent organizations

  • Market exits have not translated into net membership decline


Special Needs Plans Continue to Accelerate

SNP growth remains one of the most important signals in the February release:

  • D-SNP enrollment increased by 208,000 members (+6%)

  • C-SNP enrollment increased by 222,000 members (+6%)


Historically, SNP growth continues throughout the year, meaning these numbers are likely to increase further in upcoming releases.


The implication is clear: risk-adjusted, high-acuity populations continue to expand — even under V28.


Biggest Gainers

Parent Organization

2025

2026

Change

% Change

Humana Inc.

5,792,001

7,007,707

1,215,706

21%

Devoted Health, Inc.

211,231

467,845

256,614

121%

SCAN Group

315,642

431,480

115,838

37%

Aware Integrated, Inc.

208,504

289,384

80,880

39%

Medica Holding Company

85,414

135,134

49,720

58%

CareSource

27,058

75,214

48,156

178%

Trinity Health Corporation

57,143

99,930

42,787

75%

Alignment Healthcare USA, LLC

234,749

277,210

42,461

18%

Henry Ford Health System

87,132

128,764

41,632

48%

Clover Health Holdings. Inc.

113,113

154,265

41,152

36%

These organizations appear to have capitalized on market exits, regional strength, or targeted SNP growth strategies.


Largest Enrollment Declines


Parent Organization

2025

2026

Change

% Change

UnitedHealth Group, Inc.

10,292,743

9,367,821

(924,922)

-9%

Elevance Health, Inc.

2,235,148

1,914,939

(320,209)

-14%

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Mutual Ins. Co.

795,492

678,503

(116,989)

-15%

CVS Health Corporation

4,196,591

4,096,451

(100,140)

-2%

Health Care Service Corporation

961,171

880,669

(80,502)

-8%

Highmark Health

486,125

422,580

(63,545)

-13%

Gemstone Holdings, Inc.

77,167

35,863

(41,304)

-54%

Sentara Health Care (SHC)

50,434

9,869

(40,565)

-80%

Independent Health Association, Inc.

70,319

45,838

(24,481)

-35%

Martin's Point Health Care, Inc.

85,268

66,215

(19,053)

-22%

Membership losses may reflect product exits, pricing adjustments, or competitive displacement — particularly in markets affected by V28 risk recalibration and margin compression.

Why This Matters Now


This enrollment shift comes at a pivotal time:

  • Full implementation of the V28 risk adjustment model

  • Bid preparation for 2027 underway

  • Ongoing margin compression across MA

  • Increased scrutiny around prior authorization and compliance

  • Expansion of SNP-focused growth strategies


Enrollment movement, especially within SNP products, materially changes risk mix, revenue modeling, and operational demand.


Plans that do not reassess financial projections now risk misaligning bid strategy, product positioning, and staffing models.



How We Help Medicare Advantage Organizations


At Rebellis Group, we help Medicare Advantage organizations translate enrollment data and regulatory shifts into actionable strategy.

Our support includes:

  • V28 risk adjustment impact modeling at the product level

  • Bid and pricing sensitivity analysis

  • SNP growth strategy and integration planning

  • Revenue scenario modeling based on enrollment shifts

  • Regulatory interpretation tied to CMS Final Rule developments

  • Operational planning aligned with changing membership acuity

With enrollment patterns evolving and SNP growth accelerating, proactive modeling and scenario analysis are essential ahead of 2027 bid decisions.


The February 2026 data confirms that Medicare Advantage remains resilient — but competitive dynamics are intensifying. Growth is not evenly distributed. Risk mix is shifting. Margin sensitivity is increasing.


Plans that proactively model, adjust, and align strategy now will be better positioned than those reacting after bid submissions are finalized.



 
 
 
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